The Fight for Survival
Posted by Rob Shepherd on Friday, May 5, 2017
Whilst the fight for the top 4 is always going to grab the headlines, a nail biting battle is taking place at the foot of the league. Sunderland have already been confirmed as being relegated, that leaves two more spaces open, who will fall?
Leicester, Stoke City and Watford
It would be a huge surprise (a miracle might be a better definition!) if any of these 3 teams are relegated. Leicester, Stoke and Watford are all on 40 points and need 3 points to be mathematically safe. 2 points is likely to be enough as Hull City have a goal difference of -31 (Leicester -12, Stoke -13, Watford -18).
Leicester have a game in hand over Stoke and Watford but they can remove all doubt by beating Watford on Saturday. After this fixture, they face a difficult away tie at Manchester City, a home tie against 2nd placed Tottenham before ending the season with a home game against 10th placed Bournemouth.
Stoke on paper have an easy run in except for the home game against Arsenal, but that game is sandwiched between winnable fixtures against Bournemouth and Southampton.
Watford have a nightmare run of games! Starting with Leicester they then travel to Goodison Park to take on Everton. They then face a trip to Chelsea and end the season with a home game against top-four hopefuls, Manchester City. Watford will be confident though that the points already in the bank will be enough to see another year of Premier League action.
Burnley
Burnley all but secured their safety with a great 2-0 win away at Crystal Palace. It was a result they desperately needed and it secured their first away win of the season.
Burnley face West Brom at the weekend followed by a trip to Bournemouth before a home tie against West Ham on the final day.
Odds of being relegated for Burnley currently sit between 40-1 and 200-1 depending on the bookmaker.
West Ham
West Ham will also be breathing a lot easier after their 0-0 draw with Stoke. West Ham did appear to be in serious trouble when they suffered a run of five defeats. Slaven Billic seems to have brought calm to the situation as they are now unbeaten in four games.
West Ham have two incredibly hard fixtures coming up! This weekend they host Tottenham who themselves will be desperate to keep the pressure on Chelsea at the top. If that wasn’t bad enough, they then host Liverpool the weekend after. Liverpool will no doubt want to secure the three points to cement their top four place.
A trip to Burnley on the last game of the season does put West Ham’s guaranteed safety in their own hands. Chances are by that game though, results elsewhere will have already condemned another club.
The odds of West Ham being relegated currently sit between 50-1 and 80-1 depending on the bookmaker.
Crystal Palace
Sam Allardyce summed up Crystal Palace’s performance in their surprise 2-0 defeat against fellow strugglers Burnley;
“We got nervous. We started very well, but then fell foul to our inefficiencies, not clearing the box and that goal got the nerves jangling.”
“We sorted that at half-time and hoped our constant pressure would get us back into the game. We made a good recovery but could not find a way through a side who defended well and took their chances.
“We have worked very hard to keep our destiny in our own hands. Burnley have had a full week to prepare and I think that showed today.”
“We have got Manchester City next up, then Hull who are in and around us in the table. We have to get it right.”
Sam will need to get things right pretty quickly and hope the footballing gods are smiling down on him! Crystal Palace have a tough run in. They play Manchester City this weekend, that is followed by what could be a relegation decider against Hull at home. The last day of the season they travel to Old Trafford to play Manchester United. Not the ideal venue to visit when needing a result.
It’s not overly likely that Palace will go down, their total of 38 puts them on the cusp of safety. They could feasibly pick up draws against Hull and of course, any team will fancy getting a draw at Manchester United this year (played 34 games, 14 draws!).
Odds of being relegated for Crystal Palace currently sit between 16-1 and 20-1 depending on the bookmaker.
Hull City
I will admit, I have a soft spot for Hull! I really shouldn’t though! Being born and raised in Grimsby, Hull were considered local rivals and you wouldn’t let your “Black & White Army” mates know that you had a soft spot for the team across the Humber.
You see, until Hull first won promotion in the 2007-08 season, they were the largest city in England to have never had top flight football. Even my beloved Grimsby had experienced sitting with the big boys but not Hull. It may sound like pity but I wished them well for the sake of their fans (even if they did call us “cod heads” despite everyone from Grimsby eating haddock! – but again, just a rival thing!).
Hull have had a turbulent history and I’m always happy when a true underdog not only fights for scraps but shows true grit and determination. It’s these teams that make the English Premier League one of the most competitive leagues in the world.
In 1996, Hull City were in the old “Division Four” and finished the season two places away from relegation from the league and the obscurity of non-league footy.
In just 11 years, Hull City have had 17 managers, but recent success and stability has sent their long-suffering fans into raptures with the opportunity to go toe to toe with the finest players in the Premier League.
In Hull’s last game, a vital 0-0 draw with Southampton, it took a penalty save in stoppage time from Eldin Jakupovic to prevent a devastating loss. This point gives Hull fans hope but it’s going to be close!
Hull have a vital game against already relegated Sunderland this weekend, lose that and it could be over. A vital relegation six-pointer is next up with an away trip to Crystal Palace. Hull will need to rely on their great home form but this will be severely tested on the last day of the season when Spurs are the visitors.
Odds of Hull City being relegated currently sit between 7/4 and 9/5 depending on the bookmaker.
Swansea City
Before the Swansea v Manchester United game, many had already written off Swansea. Swansea had other ideas and will be aggrieved that Marcus Rashford appeared to dive to claim a penalty that Rooney dispatched in added time in the first half.
Swansea showed true character to keep the match alive and a wonderful Gylfi Sigurdsson free-kick earned Swansea a precious point in the 1-1 draw that could prove vital in what is likely to be a two-horse race with Hull for 17th place.
I don’t believe the remaining fixtures for Swansea are that difficult, true they have Everton at the weekend but I wonder if the wind has gone out of Everton’s sails, with a top 4 finish very unlikely and European football already guaranteed for next year.
Swansea then face already relegated Sunderland away. Swansea would surely fancy their chances there. West Bromwich Albion provide the opposition for the final game of the season. West Brom have, to be fair, taken their foot off the peddle since securing safety. April saw defeats by Watford, Southampton, Liverpool and Leicester. Certainly winnable!
Odds of Swansea being relegated currently sit between 2/1 and 4/7 depending on the bookmaker.
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough have about as much chance of avoiding the drop as I have of being invited by a group of Playboy models to join them for a night of unbridled passion. Yes, that unlikely!
However, just like Swansea, they pulled off a shock result to hold Manchester City to a 2-2 draw. A draw that could have been a win if not for Jesus (no, not that one), scoring in the 85th minute.
It will be sad for the North-East region if two teams from the region are relegated, although I doubt Newcastle United, who are back in the Premier League next year, will shed many tears.
The fixtures suggest their relegation will be confirmed next Monday. They face current league leaders Chelsea and it would take a brave person to back anything but a routine Chelsea win. They then face Southampton at home before a daunting trip to Anfield to face Liverpool.
Sorry Middlesbrough fans but I see you and Swansea joining Sunderland for the drop.